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UNSC RESOLUTION 1325
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SUDAN:
Focus on Egyptian role in peace process
NAIROBI, 20 August (IRIN) - As the Sudanese government and the Sudan People's
Liberation Movement/Army continue their second round of peace talks in Kenya this
week, analysts agree that optimism for an agreement is warranted.
With a consensus on the increasingly effective mediation partnership between Inter-Governmental
Authority on Development (IGAD) envoys from Kenya, Uganda, Eritrea and Ethiopia
and a group of observer nations comprising the US, UK, Norway and Italy, a momentum
seems to have developed which, it is hoped, could end Sudan's 19-year civil war.
Speaking in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, last week, John Prendergast, Co-Director
of the International Crisis Group's (ICG) Africa programme, told reporters that
the talks represented the best chance for Sudanese peace since the 1989 coup that
brought Sudanese President Umar Hasan al-Bashir to power.
US Special Envoy for Peace in Sudan John Danforth told reporters in Nairobi on
Monday that because of the "very, very strong support" for the peace
process worldwide, and his own belief in the will of the relevant parties to successfully
conclude the talks, he was optimistic for an agreement for the first time since
being appointed to his post.
US President George W. Bush was "very personally engaged" in Sudan,
Danforth told reporters, and the international community had a common commitment
to supporting peace in Sudan both now and in the future.
Egypt's fears
Yet neighbouring Egypt - which since 1999 has brokered a Libyan-Egyptian peace
initiative prioritising national unity - is firmly opposed to the landmark Machakos
Protocol, signed on 20 July, which provides for a possible secession of the south
after a referendum in six years' time. Egypt fears that secession might lead to
increased competition for the Nile waters, as well a more extreme Islamist government
in the north, analysts say.
In a joint press conference held on 1 August with Sudanese Information Minister
Mahdi Ibrahim, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Mahir said that "Egypt stands
firmly behind Sudan's unity", AFP reported. "Egypt supports this unity
in the context of one country in which all people have their own rights and enjoy
the fruits of national wealth," he went on to say, speaking on Egyptian President
Husni Mubarak's behalf.
On 31 July, Usamah al-Baz, an adviser to Mubarak, reiterated his government's
opposition to partition. "Partitioning the country of Sudan into two parts
would be a contagious phenomenon that would spread to surrounding countries on
the basis of tribe, language, and religion," the state-run MENA news agency
quoted him as saying, according to AFP.
Accusations regarding US interests in the peace talks, and the exclusion of Egypt
from them, have also appeared in Egyptian state-owned newspapers. "The major
objective of the United States is to eliminate the Egyptian-Libyan influence and
to abort their initiative and to separate the south of Sudan from the north on
any basis," said a columnist, Salamah Ahmad Salamah, in the state-run Al-Ahram
daily, AFP reported. "Egypt was completely excluded because of American pressure,"
he added.
Notably, as recently as May 2002, Bashir and Mubarak, meeting in Cairo, discussed
"reactivating the Egyptian-Libyan peace initiative" and "other
efforts aimed at guaranteeing the national unity of Sudanese territory,"
AFP reported. On 15 August, Foreign Minister Mahir stressed that the Libyan-Egyptian
initiative - which many regard as an attempt to undercut the IGAD process - was
still "not out of date".
Future plans
The Sudanese presidential peace adviser, Ghazi Salah al-Din al-Atabani, has said
that Khartoum will work to develop southern Sudan in order to preserve unity.
"The government has plans for development projects in the south, and we will
enter into a race against time... to modernise the south and preserve the unity
of the country," AFP quoted him as telling the state-owned Al-Akhbar daily.
"It would be important to discuss with the different Sudanese parties how
to benefit from this initiative in a way to preserve Sudan's unity," he added.
But despite such "encouragement", the likelihood remains that the southern
Sudanese may well opt - presuming that Bashir's government is still in place in
six years' time and that the referendum takes place as agreed - for secession,
something that Egypt must be aware of, analysts say.
ICG has warned that if Cairo's security fears are not allayed, it could become
a spoiler. Mubarak could work with anti-Bashir elements in Khartoum to undermine
or topple the president, and thus wreck the entire peace process, said Prendergast
last week. For Egypt, "Sudan is foremost a national security issue. They
have said that repeatedly because of the [Nile] water issue," he said. "Egypt
could work to erode support for Machakos among members of the Arab League."
"The US must get Egypt on board," he stressed, adding that high-level
and personal diplomacy was required from Bush to achieve this. But despite having
said that Sudanese peace was a priority, Prendergast noted, "President Bush
has never made a phonecall specifically about Sudan".
Danforth, however, dismissed the possibility of any interference from Egypt, saying
that while it remained opposed to succession, it recognised that partition of
Sudan was a possibility. "They're now dealing with the reality," he
said. "I do not see Egypt as a spoiler. The government gave no indication
of that when I was in Cairo."
Copyright (c) UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 2002
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