INTERNATIONAL: Is 50/50 by 2015 Achievable?

One of the key targets in the SADC Protocol on Gender and Development is 50% women in all areas of decision-making by 2015.

Progress towards equal representation of women in political decision-making over the past 10 years has been slow and uneven.

This policy brief places the SADC region in the global context, highlighting some of the gains and losses over the last decade. It examines some of the reasons for this, highlighting the roles that electoral systems, quotas, political will, campaigns and the media can play in achieving the target.

A key point made is that if some countries are able to achieve or come close to achieving this target then all countries in the region are capable of doing so.

The global average of women in parliament (both upper and lower houses combined) has increased by a mere five percent from 13.9% in 2000 to 19% in 2010. The graph shows that at 42% the Nordic countries lead the way, followed by the SADC region at 24%.

Regional context

Despite the fact that most countries had not come close to reaching the initial target of 30% representation of women in decision-making in the 1997 SADC Declaration on Gender and Development, Heads of State upped this target to 50% in the more binding 2008 Protocol on Gender and Development.

Over the last ten years the proportion of women in politics in the SADC region has increased by a mere six percent from 18% in 2000 to 24% in 2010; an increase of two percent since the signing of the Protocol in 2008. While the region is five percent above the global average of 19% it is still less than half the 50% target.

The region is a combination of the best and worst performers. Three countries, South Africa, Mozambique and Angola, fall into the top ten countries globally in terms of women's representation in parliament. At the other end of the spectrum DRC and Botswana occupy positions 110 and 114 respectively. At national level only four countries (Angola, Mozambique, South Africa and Tanzania) have reached or surpassed the original 30% target.

Five countries (Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Seychelles and Swaziland) are between 20% and 30% and the rest are below 20% with Botswana and DRC being below ten percent.

There have been some marked improvements in certain countries over the past ten years. Table one shows that the biggest improver is Angola which achieved a commendable 23.2% increase and saw it move from a global rating of 70 in 2005 to number 10 this year. Malawi, Lesotho, and Swaziland have also shown laudable progress, moving from single digit representation to over 20% in all instances with increases of over ten percent over the ten year period.

South Africa and Mozambique have shown consistent improvement over the decade ensuring their places globally at number three and nine respectively.

Tanzania is due to have elections in October this year and we will keep a close watch on this to see whether they continue their upward trend.

Recent elections in Mauritius on 5 May 2010 witnessed a paltry 1.7% increase in women's representation in parliament from 17.1% to 18.8%.

Even more worrying is the backward slide in the October 2009 Botswana elections from an already low 11.1% to 7.9%, now the lowest in the region.

Similarly in the November 2009 elections the proportion of women in the Namibian parliament declined from just over 30% to around 26%.

At the local level the picture is similar except that it is Lesotho, with 58% women, the highest level of women's representation in any political body in SADC, which leads the way, followed by Namibia at 44% and South Africa at 40%.

The regional average for women Ministers is 22 percent with only three countries (Lesotho, Mozambique and South Africa) having achieved or exceeded 30%.

Electoral systems and quotas

The question is, why are some countries making good progress while others are regressing? The answer to this is multifaceted and relates mainly to electoral systems, approaches to quotas, political will and concerted 50/50 campaigns.

Table two shows that the three countries (South Africa, Mozambique and Angola) that have surpassed the 30% at national level, and Namibia and South Africa (which have the second and third highest representation of women at the local level), have all achieved this as a result of the PR system combined with voluntary party quotas.

Table two also shows that countries with constituencybased systems and no quotas are those with the lowest levels of women's representation. Welldocumented evidence shows that women candidates have a better chance of getting elected under the PR system and more especially the closed list system.

The reason for this is that voters then focus on the political party and its policies and programmes rathe than on the individual candidate. This is advantageous for women as there are still deeply entrenched patriarchal attitudes and views that women should not participate in politics, and if given a choice between a female or male candidate, voters are more likely to vote for the man. Voluntary party quotas in a constituency system seldom work in that men, who are better known, get put in the 'safe' constituencies, while women candidates are fielded in constituencies that parties know they are not likely to win.